Sunday, May 19, 2019

V Guard Industries Ltd. – Ready for Triangle Zak (Pullback)


If you have seen Sunday exit poll then all polls are in favor of BJP. The market will take it positively and this is only an exit poll, not the actual result. We should have conscious. Let’s see a technical overview below.

V-Guard Industries Ltd (NS: VGUARD) is a major electrical appliances manufacturer in India and the largest in the state of Kerala with an annual turnover of ₹23.21 billion (US$340 million) in the financial year 2017-18. The company manufactures voltage stabilizers, electrical cable, electric pumps, electric motors, geysers, solar water heaters, air coolers, and UPSs.

Technical Overview of VGUARD: In the below chart, we can see the stock price is trading between two Trend Line and both are working as Support & Resistance. Chart showing us stock price has made 3 top as well as the bottom. When a price has made bottom that time volumes are less (i.e. Bull & Bear are equal). On last Friday the price has opened at 203.45 and closed at 206.80, it is almost +1.64% in a day. Also, the stock price is taking support of 200 DMA. I am expecting a rally from these levels, the reason is technical as well as market sentiments.
 















We can buy stock from current levels with the small stop-loss of 201 on a closing basis. Target is 215-230. All view is positional.


Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisor before taking any decisions based on the above write-up.

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

'Breakout' Vs 'Support'


It has always been tough to decide on entry point in a stock. We know stocks keep giving us entry opportunities to enter. It is up to us where to grab the price. In this article, we shall discuss what are the pros and cons of each of the entry type as mentioned in the title of the article.

A stock looks very attractive on charts while moving up. It gives us a feeling of making some quick bucks. At the same time, a stock moving down is like a bad dream and we do not wish to touch it. However, something which is falling means you are getting it at a cheaper price.

Let me first clarify with one example each as to what I mean by 'buying a breakout' and 'buying near support'


Breakout:

Here are some characteristics of a breakout. A breakout is an action where the stock moves beyond substantial Resistance. A sudden demand is created. The whole world starts buying the stock. There is a sudden jump in the stock price. Long green candles are seen on the chart. Volume suddenly increases. In fundamental analysis parlance breakout investing can be compared with 'Growth Investing'. It is like buying something though it is costly, as the demand is still high. When I refer it in context of technical analysis, I mean the stock has already seen a substantial run-up, still, I wish to buy it as there is further scope for it to move up.
This is how a breakout chart looks like-
 
Near Support: Here are some characteristics of a stock being near support. In this case, the stock is in the process of approaching substantial support. Demand is not evident on the chart. Volumes are not indicative. Candlesticks still give no clue about the potential future up move. This can be compared with Value investing in fundamental analysis parlance. When I refer it in context of technical analysis, I mean the stock has seen a substantial fall and there is no indication of buyer’s interest in the stock still, I wish to buy it due to its low price and potential up move from the level.
 This is how a stock near support looks like-
Having seen what I mean by “Breakout” and “Near Support”, now let’s try and understand what are the pros and cons of taking each type of entry.

Pros and Cons of Entering a Stock on Breakout:
Pros:
- We enter during price in momentum. Hence, it has a higher probability of continuing the upward movement.
- Less Wait. We do not have to wait for the price to start moving in the desired direction.
Probable time to reach target is less so some quick bucks can be made.
- Easier to identify the stock as the stock is in news and found in most Stock Screeners
- Higher confidence as you are with others who are also buying the stock.

Cons:
- Stoploss is far from the entry, hence higher is the risk
- A breakout can fail thereby giving you higher losses
- You buy something which is costlier

Pros and Cons of Entering Near a Support:

Pros:
- You enter near support and hence the stop loss is very near.
- Risk is less as you enter near a stop loss. Reward usually has better ratio with Risk.
- You buy something which is cheap.
- There is a high probability that institutional investors are buying these levels.
- If you know how to identify good support- you have higher confidence
- Less probability of a stock moving below support

Cons:
- Momentum is still downward, hence entry with low confidence
- Long wait before the price starts moving up as there is a high chance that the stock will consolidate near support.
- Not found on most Stock Screeners
- Probable time to reach target is usually higher
- More 'unknown' factor 

Both cases have some Pros and some Cons. It’s an individual's choice which one to enter. Each trader has his way and style of trading. Some like fast results and some others like to have lesser risk. I prefer to have a good mix of both the entry types.




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Disclaimer: The contents produced here are purely for educational purpose. They should not be construed as buy/sell recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered Analyst or Investment Advisor. Readers are advised to consult their Investment advisor before taking any decisions based on the above write-up.